WASHINGTON, Aug. 1 (DC Times Online) — The National Hurricane Center’s Aug. 1 Tropical Weather Outlook said no tropical activity was expected in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico during the following week. For people in the United States, the practical step is to keep checking the center’s official outlooks, especially those living along the Gulf Coast and Southeast coast, where conditions can change even during a quiet stretch.
The Atlantic season had produced two named storms by July 31, according to the FOX Forecast Center. But the environment remained unfavorable for most tropical systems, with strong upper-level winds, Saharan dust and dry air limiting thunderstorm growth.
Why El Niño matters
El Niño is a recurring climate pattern in which ocean temperatures become warmer than average across parts of the central and eastern tropical Pacific. It can alter weather patterns far beyond the Pacific.
During an Atlantic hurricane season, El Niño often increases winds high above the ocean. Those winds can create wind shear — a change in wind speed or direction with height. Strong wind shear can tilt or tear apart a developing tropical system before it becomes organized.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and other forecasters said El Niño was strengthening. Forecast discussions cited by the FOX Forecast Center indicated the event could become one of the strongest since records began in 1950. That does not mean a record has been set, and it does not rule out hurricanes. It means the climate pattern is adding a major obstacle to tropical development.
The North Carolina State University climate office reported in May that waters in the Atlantic’s Main Development Region were warmer than normal, a condition that can support storms. But it also said a developing El Niño could strengthen upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic.
What is happening near Africa?
Several tropical waves were moving west from the African coast into the Main Development Region, the part of the tropical Atlantic where many long-track hurricanes form. A tropical wave is an area of unsettled weather that can sometimes organize into a tropical depression, storm or hurricane.
The waves themselves do not guarantee development. The FOX Forecast Center said forecasters were watching three key factors: wind shear, Saharan dust and ocean temperatures.
Saharan dust can bring dry, stable air into the tropical Atlantic. That air can limit the thunderstorms needed to build a tropical circulation. The National Hurricane Center’s outlook also reflected the lack of organized areas of interest.
Warm water is generally favorable for tropical systems, and Atlantic temperatures were providing some support. But the FOX Forecast Center said that influence was being offset by El Niño-related winds and other hostile conditions.
What does the official outlook say?
The National Hurricane Center’s Aug. 1 outlook called for no tropical activity in the Atlantic basin, Caribbean or Gulf during the following week. A separate Tropical Weather Outlook issued Thursday evening listed no areas of interest and placed the basin’s seven-day development chance at essentially zero, according to the source material describing that outlook.
Those forecasts cover only a limited window. A quiet seven-day outlook is not a prediction for the entire season, and tropical systems can form quickly when conditions become more favorable.
Seasonal forecasts also show why a slow start does not settle the outcome. NOAA was reported as forecasting 8 to 14 named storms, three to six hurricanes and one to three major hurricanes. Colorado State University’s forecast called for 11 named storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes. AccuWeather forecast 8 to 14 named storms, four to seven hurricanes and two to four major hurricanes.
A named storm has sustained winds of at least 39 mph. A hurricane reaches at least 74 mph, while a major hurricane is classified as Category 3 or stronger, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
What should residents do now?
There was no specific U.S. storm threat or emergency action identified in the supplied outlooks. Residents should continue relying on the National Hurricane Center for the official seven-day tropical outlook and local National Weather Service offices for local forecasts.
The current message is preparedness rather than alarm: El Niño, wind shear, dust and dry air are suppressing activity in the near term, but warm ocean water and later changes in the atmosphere could still support storms during the remainder of the season.
