WASHINGTON, Aug. 13 (Senior Newspaper) — New estimates for the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment range from 3.2% to 3.6%, giving retirees and other beneficiaries a preliminary view of how their monthly payments could change next year.
The estimates were released after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, known as CPI-W, rose 3.4% over the 12 months ending in July. That was down from 3.5% in June.
The range remains unsettled. Inflation readings for August and September are still needed before the Social Security Administration calculates the official adjustment.
How the estimates differ
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan policy organization, projects a 3.2% increase. It said CPI-W was flat in July and up 3.4% from a year earlier.
AARP estimates a 3.5% increase. The organization described the figure as its first forecast issued before all three third-quarter inflation reports were available.
The Senior Citizens League estimates a 3.6% increase, down from its earlier projection of 3.8%.
Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst, estimated a 3.4% increase after the July data. Her estimate had been 3.7% in July and 4.7% in June.
The differing forecasts reflect the fact that the final adjustment is based on a specific set of inflation readings rather than on a single monthly report.
What the increase could mean for benefits
The Senior Citizens League calculated that a 3.6% adjustment would increase an average monthly benefit by $69.75, from $1,937.53 to $2,007.28. That calculation is an estimate, not a change approved by the Social Security Administration.
A COLA, or cost-of-living adjustment, is intended to change Social Security payments as prices change. The adjustment affects Social Security beneficiaries nationally, including retired workers and others receiving benefits.
For an individual beneficiary, the dollar increase would depend on the person’s current benefit. A percentage increase applies to the existing monthly payment, so people receiving different amounts would see different dollar changes.
Why the forecasts moved lower
The forecasts have generally fallen as the latest inflation data showed some moderation. The Senior Citizens League moved from 3.8% to 3.6%. Johnson’s forecast declined from 4.7% in June to 3.4% after the July data. AARP’s earlier estimate was 3.6%, compared with its latest 3.5% projection.
Shannon Benton, executive director of the Senior Citizens League, said inflation had been volatile. Rich Johnson, AARP’s vice president for financial security, said food and energy prices could still affect the forecast over the next two months and that the estimate was not final.
That uncertainty matters to households planning around fixed monthly income. But none of the current projections determines the eventual payment amount.
When the official COLA will be set
The Social Security Administration uses CPI-W readings from July, August and September to calculate the annual adjustment. The agency is expected to announce the 2027 COLA on Oct. 14, after the September inflation data are released.
Payments reflecting the new adjustment are expected to begin in January 2027. Until the Social Security Administration makes its announcement, the 3.2% to 3.6% range remains a set of competing forecasts rather than an official benefit change.
